Djibouti entry into AUC chair race could divide East Africa votes

Djibouti’s entry into the race for the next chair of the African Union Commission (AUC) on Tuesday could see member states in two key regions in East Africa taking sides ahead of next year’s vote.

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Djibouti has announced that it is putting forward its Foreign Minister Mahmoud Ali Youssouf as a candidate for the next AUC presidency, becoming the third person to express interest in the continent’s highest level. Kenyan opposition leader Raila Odinga and Somalia’s former Foreign Minister Fawzia Adam have previously announced their positions.

But despite the fact that only countries in East Africa will compete for this position, Djibouti’s entry means that it will not be united with one of the current candidates, going forward. in the previous order. Djibouti, Kenya and Somalia are part of the Inter-Governmental Organization for Development (IGAD).

Kenya and Somalia are also part of the East African Community (EAC), which also includes Tanzania, Rwanda, Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Uganda and South Sudan. Normally, they gather around one candidate to increase their chances. Sometimes, this is not always the case. Until the law is changed to allow job rotation, these countries are at war with each other.

In 2017, Kenya presented a candidate for the presidency of the AUC and Djibouti had chosen the vice-president, a clear way to split the vote as everyone sought support from each other since seeking this positions therefore need agreement.

Finally, when Kenya’s Amina Mohamed lost to Chad’s representative Mahamat Faki, accusations of “betrayal” came out of Nairobi. However, Djibouti will soon publish a statement denying to have voted for another candidate.

Nevertheless, these three candidates from these countries have the opportunity to promote themselves in the region and drive away the votes of other groups that are not eligible to run for office.

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The AUC president will go to the north, where the other three regions; South, West and Central will compete for the remaining commissioner positions.

Youssouf, 59, a multilingual Djiboutian and has worked in the Ministry of Foreign Affairs since the 1990s, his government said that his experience in the diplomatic service gives him an edge over the other competitors, saying he knows the intricacies of the AUC and that he is ready to “serve and breathe new life into the Pan-African organization.

The Djibouti representative is known for resolving disputes through discussion and negotiation in the performance of his duties and is also a multilingual, he speaks French, English and Arabic fluently. His media team included regional policy experts and the Somali ambassador.

Kenya has already embarked on a vehicle of diplomacy process, bringing together a campaign that includes both President William Ruto’s faction and Mr. Odinga’s Azimio la Umoja Kenya Coalition. Dr Ruto and Mr. Odinga have sought support from EAC leaders and governments as well as others from the bloc, the latest being Ghana’s president Nana Akufo-Addo.

However, the campaign is expected to officially begin next month, once all interested parties have submitted their applications. The person holding the position is elected and serves a term of four years, renewable only once.

“The Presidents of the African Union today unanimously adopted a very important decision that it is time for the East African region to submit candidates for the post of President of the Commission of the African Union. Elections will be held in February 2025,” the statement dated March 15, 2024 read in part.

Djibouti initially challenged Kenya in international elections when it applied to become a member of the UN Security Council, although the AU recommended Nairobi for non-permanent status. Djibouti will win the second place after Kenya secured a two-thirds vote for the seat for the 2021-22 season.

This year, Djibouti did not apply for this position, which is open again in the East African region. Instead, Somalia received support from the AU to continue its campaign for the June 2024 elections, for the 2025-26 term.