Alex Gathii, MD Tanolope Consultancy Ltd. Photo/courtesy.
Falling processor deliveries are putting pressure on milk supplies as experts call for better fodder planning, farm management and investment in productivity
Kenya’s worsening milk shortage is exposing deeper structural challenges in the country’s dairy sector, with experts warning that declining production cannot be blamed on weather conditions alone.
Milk deliveries to processors have continued to fall as dry conditions affect major dairy-producing regions. The situation has raised concerns over rising retail prices and the growing risk of milk adulteration as supply becomes tighter.
The Kenya Dairy Board has warned traders against adulterating milk by adding water and other substances to increase volumes. Consumers have also been advised to be cautious when purchasing milk from unregulated sources.
But according to Alex Gathii Gitonga, founder and managing director of Tanolope Consultancy Ltd, the current shortage should force the industry to examine how Kenyan dairy farms manage feeding and productivity.
Feed shortage remains a major problem
Kenya produces an estimated 5.2 billion litres of milk annually according to data cited by the Kenya Dairy Board. However, production remains highly dependent on smallholder farmers whose farms are vulnerable to changes in weather and feed availability.
Gitonga argues that many farmers do not plan their fodder requirements early enough.
“When farmers wait until drought sets in to look for fodder, the cost of production rises and milk production starts falling,” he said.
He recommended that farmers calculate their annual fodder and mineral requirements and begin conservation early enough to create reserves for periods of low rainfall.
Poorly timed harvesting can also reduce the nutritional value of fodder. When fodder is harvested after it has become too mature, cows receive less nutritious feed which can translate into lower milk production.
Commercial feeds present another challenge because of their cost and inconsistent quality.
Cow stress is affecting production
The dairy consultant also pointed to heat stress as an important but often overlooked factor affecting milk production.
Cows require adequate water, shade, ventilation, comfortable resting areas and balanced rations to maintain production.
Gitonga estimates that heat stress can reduce milk output by between 10 and 15 per cent.
He argues that farmers should therefore focus on improving the environment and management of their animals instead of relying solely on high-yielding genetics.
“Productivity depends more on feeding and management than simply acquiring high-yield genetics,” he said.
Milk deliveries continue to decline
Data from the Kenya Dairy Board shows that formal milk deliveries to processors fell from 88.89 million litres in May to 84.44 million litres in June.
The June figure was 6.4 per cent lower than the volume recorded during the same month in 2025.
Deliveries fell further in July to about 81.3 million litres, representing another decline from June.
The decline has been linked partly to dry and cold conditions in some of Kenya’s key milk-producing regions.
Fodder planning could reduce future shortages
Gitonga says the industry needs to move from reacting to shortages towards deliberate fodder planning.
He recommended timely harvesting and conservation of hay and silage as well as stronger supply networks that can provide farmers with feed and minerals throughout the year.
Even when rains return, farmers may not immediately see a recovery in milk production because pastures require time to regenerate.
The October to December 2026 rainfall forecast offers some hope, with several major dairy-producing counties expected to receive above-average rainfall.
However, Gitonga says the industry should use favourable weather periods to prepare for the next dry season rather than waiting for another shortage.
Dairy industry needs a productivity strategy
Kenya’s dairy sector supports an estimated 1.8 million smallholder households, making milk production an important source of income and food security.
The current shortage therefore goes beyond the availability of milk on supermarket shelves.
It highlights the need for farmers, processors, government agencies and industry players to strengthen fodder production, animal nutrition, water availability, farm management and milk quality controls.
Rather than relying heavily on imported milk powder whenever local production falls, greater investment in farm-level productivity could provide a more sustainable solution.
